NACHHALTIGER ANBAU VON BIOENERGIE – EINE ÖKONOMISCH-ÖKOLOGISCHE ANALYSE FÜR DAS UMWELTMINISTERIUM IN BADEN-WÜRTTEMBERG

Agrarumweltpolitik, Naturschutz, Bioenergie, ökonomisch-ökologische Analyse, Regionalmodell, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Downscaling of agricultural market impacts under bioeconomy development to the regional and the farm level—An example of Baden‐Wuerttemberg

The expansion of the bioeconomy sector will increase the competition for agricultural land regarding biomass production. Furthermore, the particular path of the expansion of the bioeconomy is associated with great uncertainty due to the early stage of technology development and its dependency on political framework conditions. Economic models are suitable tools to identify trade-offs in agricultural production and address the high uncertainty of the bioeconomy expansion. We present results from the farm model Economic Farm Emission Model of four bioeconomy scenarios in order to evaluate impacts and trade-offs of different potential bioeconomy developments and the corresponding uncertainty at regional and farm level in Baden-Wuerttemberg, Germany. The demand-side effects of the bioeconomy scenarios are based on downscaling European Union level results of a separate model linkage between an agricultural sector and an energy sector model. The general model results show that the expanded use of agricultural land for the bioeconomy sector, especially for the cultivation of perennial biomass crops (PBC), reduces biomass production for established value chains, especially for food and feed. The results also show differences between regions and farm types in Baden-Wuerttemberg. Fertile arable regions and arable farms profit more from the expanded use of biomass in the bioeconomy than farms that focus on cattle farming. Latter farms use the arable land to produce feed for the cattle, whereas arable farms can expand feedstock production for new value chains. Additionally, less intensive production systems like extensive grassland suffer from economic losses, whereas the competition in fertile regions further increases. Hence, if the extensive production systems are to be preserved, appropriate subsidies must be provided. This emphasizes the relevance of downscaling aggregated model results to higher spatial resolution, even as far as to the decision maker (farm), to identify possible contradicting effects of the bioeconomy as well as policy implications.Ministerium für Wissenschaft, Forschung und Kunst Baden‐Württemberg http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003542Peer Reviewe

DER BEITRAG ERNEUERBARER ENERGIEN ZUM KLIMASCHUTZ EINE OKONOMISCH-OKOLOGISCHE ANALYSE FUR DIE LANDWIRTSCHAFT VON NIEDERSACHSEN (German)

Die Landwirtschaft kann durch die Produktion von Biomasse einen positiven Beitrag zu den nationalen Klimaschutzzielen leisten. Eine Analyse mit dem ökonomisch-ökologische Regionalmodell EFEM (Economic Farm Emission Model) hat gezeigt, dass durch den Anbau nachwachsender Rohstoffe und die alternative Verwendung von Getreidestroh sowie durch weitere Managementmassnahmen bei der Pflanzenproduktion die Treibhausgasemissionen in Niedersachsen gegenüber dem Referenzjahr um bis zu 60 % reduziert und die landesweiten Deckungsbeiträge um rund 7,2 % (140 C/ha) gesteigert werden können

DER BEITRAG ERNEUERBARER ENERGIEN ZUM KLIMASCHUTZ EINE OKONOMISCH-OKOLOGISCHE ANALYSE FUR DIE LANDWIRTSCHAFT VON NIEDERSACHSEN (German)

Die Landwirtschaft kann durch die Produktion von Biomasse einen positiven Beitrag zu den nationalen Klimaschutzzielen leisten. Eine Analyse mit dem ökonomisch-ökologische Regionalmodell EFEM (Economic Farm Emission Model) hat gezeigt, dass durch den Anbau nachwachsender Rohstoffe und die alternative Verwendung von Getreidestroh sowie durch weitere Managementmassnahmen bei der Pflanzenproduktion die Treibhausgasemissionen in Niedersachsen gegenüber dem Referenzjahr um bis zu 60 % reduziert und die landesweiten Deckungsbeiträge um rund 7,2 % (140 C/ha) gesteigert werden können.Substitutionspotenzial, Einkommenseffekte, Regionalmodell,

b. Development of supply curves for environmental compensation measures on farmland on the example of the Stuttgart Region in Germany

Impacts on nature and landscape in Germany must be compensated for in accordance with the Federal Nature Conservation Act. Farmers can participate by voluntarily applying appropriate measures on their land. We used a geodata-based model to analyse environmental compensation measures on arable land from an economic perspective on the example of the Stuttgart Region, a metropolitan area where construction activities and their compensation are huge, exemplary for many European metropolises. In order to estimate a possible realistic potential, the willingness to accept for compensation measures previously determined in a discrete choice experiment with farmers in the Stuttgart region was integrated into the model. The analysis compares the economic viability of current agricultural use with the income generated from the sale of so called ecopoints by supply curve. The results show wide variation in ecopoint potential in spatial terms. The implementation of compensation measures is not economically reasonable, depending on the legal security provided by a land register entry at a price of less than 1.00 € per ecopoint in the Stuttgart city district. In contrast, measures can be implemented economically and on a large scale in surrounding districts for less than 0.60 €, regardless of legal protection. The optimal type of compensation measure from an economic point of view depends on type and land is also important. The model and its results can provide important information for decision-makers in politics, landscape planning and nature conservation